The Social and Economic Determinants of Voter Behaviour: Evidence from the 1992 General Election In Scotland

This paper presents a model of voter choice which embodies less restrictive assumptions than those previously applied to UK elections and opinion polls, relaxing the standard assumption of the ‘Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives’ and allowing for voters to ‘group’ electoral alternatives perceived to be particularly similar to each other. Application of the model to the Scottish General Election results for 1992 indicates that relaxation of this assumption is necessary. In addition, the paper provides evidence on the socio‐economic determinants of voter choice, and the relative magnitudes of the effects of income, local unemployment and social class.